Unlike most folks who take August off, I took off July from blogging. I�m back and rearing to go.

Predictions?

Nothing boils my ass like people who make predictions, then don�t stand behind them. Chris Matthews famous line that this invasion will go off like ��Bay of Pigs, Vietnam, Desert One, Beirut and Somalia in the history of military catastrophe,� should be used to pound his head into mush. The brazen stupidity of a guy who has his own show is truly amazing. Still, after the fact, he makes no bones about being wrong. Indeed, in the week before Uday and Qusay Hussein were dispatched directly to hell, he was bloviating on Don Imus� nationally syndicated program about how George Bush lied to us by inserting those 12 words concerning Niger and uranium in the State of the Union speech. He then proceeded to get all worked up � demanding a Watergate like inquisition as to how the "American People" were mislead into war.

Dave�s rule of politics number 14: anytime a politician / journalist / talking head uses the term �American People� they don�t give a damn about the American people and are, instead, grinding a political ax.

Earth to Chris: your 15 minutes are almost over. You�ve milked your tenure in Jimmy Carter�s (failed) presidency for about as much as can be hoped for. Just get out.

That stated, my prediction for the Dow has come to pass, peaking at about 9300, before skidding sideways (and slightly down) for about a month. Shortly after Labor Day, it will be off to the races.
The Euro peaked at $1.19 about a month ago, and is down now to $1.12 Watch it slide to par with the buck.
Natural Gas prices are about 10% off where they were when I wrote that they would come down.

Now, why can�t Chris Matthews just admit he was wrong and concede.

Will she or won�t she?

Dr. S and I had a long discussion one Sunday morning about Sen. Hillary Clinton and whether or not she�ll run for president. Personally, I�d love to see it. It would allow for the biggest blowout in US Presidential Election History. And it would permanently marginalize both Bill and Hill for the foreseeable future. I said that the only way she�d run is if there was a hint that Rudy Guiliani wants she Senate seat. Then, she�d have to bolt for the Presidential run rather than get mowed down by the Rudy juggernaut.

Now that Howard Dean as made the covers of both Time and Newsweek, the chattering classes have decided that Hillary must jump in to �save the Democratic Party� from certain annihilation. Now, before anybody takes this stuff as truth, you have to break this into two halves:

1) Will Hillary run?
2) Does the Democratic Party need saving?

As for Hillary, I�ve already answer that question to my own satisfaction: she�ll never run if there is even the slightest possibility of her losing. The only reason she ran for Senate in New York, is that it was a close to being appointed senator as she could get. The late Pat Moynihan gave her his blessing, then promptly died. With a solidly Democratic electorate, she would probably coast to victory against anybody who ran against her. She has to appear invincible.

As for the second question, the answer is a bit more strained. The Democratic Party as it is currently constituted, is not ideological coherent in any sense. It�s pro-choice on abortion, but anti-choice on anything else. It has no economic policy to speak of. It has to military or foreign policy standards of any note. Any criticism of any of it's constituent grievance groups is considered "hate speech" � a blantantly fascist attempt to squelch free speech. In short, the Democratic Party in America is nothing more than a collection of battling grievance groups, united in their blind rage at the Republican Party in general and George Bush in particular.

Guess that never really got over losing in 1994 to Newt and company.

Nevertheless, if things go as I have written in these pages � and the Republican take 50 to 50 in 2004 � watch for the death of Democratic Party. The party of Thomas Jefferson will be replaced by the Greens, which is at least consistent in their ideology. Indeed, if Ralph Nader were smart, he�s run full tilt for president starting now, and kill off the Democrats as a Presidential party now and for the foreseeable future.