Gallup has Bush up by 13 points
USA Today (USAT) is reporting in their latest USAT/CNN/Gallup Poll that President George Bush has opend a 13 point lead of challenger Sen. John Kerry (D-MA) in surveys taken during the beginning of this week. A separate survey has Bush leading Kerry in the battleground state of Pennsylvania by either 3 or 4 points, depending on the survey.
In this space yesterday, it was reported that Bush lead Kerry in New Jersey and has significantly tightened the race in NY, Minnesota and Maine.
Observation: As Bush pulls ahead, watch for people to "vote their hopes" and defect to Green Party Ralph Nader. These voters rationale: they are the Anybody but Bush (ABB) people who latched onto Kerry once it was clear that Howard Dean (D-VT) was not ready for prime time. This will pull Kerry down in a few states with a huge Michael Moore faction of the democratic party (read "NY and California"). Bush still tales at least 40 states will a good chance to run the table.
Friday, September 17, 2004
Thursday, September 16, 2004
Okay, so I was wrong
I figured Dan Rather (D-TX) would take the principled way out of his current mess with the forged Texas Air National Guard (TANG) documents he so carefully showcased on 60 Minutes II on September 8th. I honestly thought that he would realize that the gig was up and that if wanted to teach at one of the major J-Schools in his retirement, he would turn on the source that set him up and attempt to salvage some teeny-weeny piece of his credibility.
Not so.
In a tersely worded response from Andrew Heyword, the President of CBS news, the network stated:
Moreover:
In other words, we're not backing off the story and standing by Dan [italics mine].
Yesterday, I wondered when the adults at CBS where going to step in and explain to Dan that his little quixotic crusade against President Bush is doing damage to the company. I figured CBS President Les Moonves or Mr. Heyword would simply take Dan aside and tell him it was time to take his meds and catch a bus to the dog track. Money, in the end, would win.
Well, according to Brother Drudge, CBS execs are now "concerned" about ratings fading in major markets. From Drudge:
Indeed, one CBS radio affiliate in Houston, Texas is dropping the network's news feed and instead opting for the fledgiling FOX radio network.
It's too late for Dan to do a mea culpa. Somebody in a suit is going to pink slip Dan in a week's time. If they were smart, they'd to try to blame it all on "The Kerry Camp" or "Kerry operatives", or some such nonsense, and try to save the network's reputation through this election cycle.
It really is an ugly situation for the viewpoint of CBS executives. One the one hand, the face of CBS News is becoming or has become unmoored from reality with regards to the Bush / TANG story and has already become a public embarassment. On the other hand, if you deep six him, you run the risk that he does indeed do weapons-grade Howard Beale meltdown on live national television, either on your network or someone elses.
Either way, CBS will be hard pressed to get it's reputation back, ever.
BTW...
The Kerry Campaign appears to be cratering. The latest numbers show Kerry behind Bush in New Jersey by 4 points and behind 6 in Florida. And Kerry's June 28 point lead in New York is down to a mere 6 point lead now.
Wow.
A beautiful reposte from Duncan Maxwell of the NRO
And by the way, even if you're a journalist, the right to forge documents isn't covered by the First Amendment.
I figured Dan Rather (D-TX) would take the principled way out of his current mess with the forged Texas Air National Guard (TANG) documents he so carefully showcased on 60 Minutes II on September 8th. I honestly thought that he would realize that the gig was up and that if wanted to teach at one of the major J-Schools in his retirement, he would turn on the source that set him up and attempt to salvage some teeny-weeny piece of his credibility.
Not so.
In a tersely worded response from Andrew Heyword, the President of CBS news, the network stated:
The CBS News report was based on a preponderance of evidence: many interviews, both on- and off-camera, with individuals with direct and indirect knowledge of the situation, atmosphere and events of the period in question, as well as the procedures, caracter and thinking of Lt. Col. Killian, Lt. Bush' squadron commander in the Guard, at the time.
Moreover:
In light of the questions about that original 60 MINUTES Wednesday report, CBS News states that it will redouble its efforts to continue reporting aggressively on all aspects of the story, in an effort to resolve those questions.
In other words, we're not backing off the story and standing by Dan [italics mine].
Yesterday, I wondered when the adults at CBS where going to step in and explain to Dan that his little quixotic crusade against President Bush is doing damage to the company. I figured CBS President Les Moonves or Mr. Heyword would simply take Dan aside and tell him it was time to take his meds and catch a bus to the dog track. Money, in the end, would win.
Well, according to Brother Drudge, CBS execs are now "concerned" about ratings fading in major markets. From Drudge:
NIELSEN numbers this week show Rather fading and trailing his rivals in every Top 10 city, other than San Francisco, with audience margins in some cities of more than 6 to 1 against CBS...
Indeed, one CBS radio affiliate in Houston, Texas is dropping the network's news feed and instead opting for the fledgiling FOX radio network.
It's too late for Dan to do a mea culpa. Somebody in a suit is going to pink slip Dan in a week's time. If they were smart, they'd to try to blame it all on "The Kerry Camp" or "Kerry operatives", or some such nonsense, and try to save the network's reputation through this election cycle.
It really is an ugly situation for the viewpoint of CBS executives. One the one hand, the face of CBS News is becoming or has become unmoored from reality with regards to the Bush / TANG story and has already become a public embarassment. On the other hand, if you deep six him, you run the risk that he does indeed do weapons-grade Howard Beale meltdown on live national television, either on your network or someone elses.
Either way, CBS will be hard pressed to get it's reputation back, ever.
BTW...
The Kerry Campaign appears to be cratering. The latest numbers show Kerry behind Bush in New Jersey by 4 points and behind 6 in Florida. And Kerry's June 28 point lead in New York is down to a mere 6 point lead now.
Wow.
A beautiful reposte from Duncan Maxwell of the NRO
And by the way, even if you're a journalist, the right to forge documents isn't covered by the First Amendment.
Wednesday, September 15, 2004
So why is CBS delaying the "explanation"?
According to Matt Drudge, CBS has delayed their "Rather Embarassing" press conference with regards to the bogus 60 Minutes II documents relating to President Bush's servcie in the Texas Air National Guard (TANG). Originally scheduled for 12 noon EDT, they pushed it out to 3:30 EDT.
Why?
Well, I suppose we'll find out soon enough. However, As Andrew Sullivan opined, this little dustup has the potential for doing a lot of damage:
I disagree about the political damage even possibly being from the Bush campaign. Indeed, why would Dan Rather (D-TX) not immediately disclose that the forged dosuments where from the Bush Camp. This would simple add to the mythology that Karl Rove is the sinister genius puppetmaster pulling the string of both the President and the country at large and by extension amke Dan into a knight in shining armour saving we the down-trodden from the clutches of the barbarians. If he could do it, it would have already happened.
No, Davespeak breaks the possibility of the revelation into two pieces. They are:
1. Dan hits the fan.
2. The forged documents in question came from John Kerry's staff.
CBS picks the later if they want to save their sinking reputation (and keep Bob Schieffer on the Presidential debate panel). Here, they could blame the entire thing on Kerry and walk away from the table, knowing he was going to lose anyway. That way Dan could keep his job until he retires sometime next year. If Dan hits the fan -- and pulls a full-tilt-bogie Howard Beale -- CBS still gets their reputation back, up to a point. But who wants a loose cannon rolling around?
Either way this shakes, CBS is in the toliet. The only variable left is whether or not revenge is on the mind the Andrew Heyword, the head of CBS news. Then the good Mr. Heyword would want to hammer the buckethead that put him in the mess to begin with. If this is the way things break, Mr. Kerry might as well cash his check.
According to Matt Drudge, CBS has delayed their "Rather Embarassing" press conference with regards to the bogus 60 Minutes II documents relating to President Bush's servcie in the Texas Air National Guard (TANG). Originally scheduled for 12 noon EDT, they pushed it out to 3:30 EDT.
Why?
Well, I suppose we'll find out soon enough. However, As Andrew Sullivan opined, this little dustup has the potential for doing a lot of damage:
WHY ARE WE WAITING? This Rather story has the potential to become huge. We can have a few ideas about what's going on behind closed doors at CBS. Rather is refusing to apologize or quit. Or he's threatening to bring others down with him. Or the sources for the forgeries are political dynamite - whether they're connected to the Kerry or the Bush campaigns - and so decisions have to be made about whether to expose them. It's like a good Washington thriller. And it has the potential to transform the election.
I disagree about the political damage even possibly being from the Bush campaign. Indeed, why would Dan Rather (D-TX) not immediately disclose that the forged dosuments where from the Bush Camp. This would simple add to the mythology that Karl Rove is the sinister genius puppetmaster pulling the string of both the President and the country at large and by extension amke Dan into a knight in shining armour saving we the down-trodden from the clutches of the barbarians. If he could do it, it would have already happened.
No, Davespeak breaks the possibility of the revelation into two pieces. They are:
1. Dan hits the fan.
2. The forged documents in question came from John Kerry's staff.
CBS picks the later if they want to save their sinking reputation (and keep Bob Schieffer on the Presidential debate panel). Here, they could blame the entire thing on Kerry and walk away from the table, knowing he was going to lose anyway. That way Dan could keep his job until he retires sometime next year. If Dan hits the fan -- and pulls a full-tilt-bogie Howard Beale -- CBS still gets their reputation back, up to a point. But who wants a loose cannon rolling around?
Either way this shakes, CBS is in the toliet. The only variable left is whether or not revenge is on the mind the Andrew Heyword, the head of CBS news. Then the good Mr. Heyword would want to hammer the buckethead that put him in the mess to begin with. If this is the way things break, Mr. Kerry might as well cash his check.
Monday, September 13, 2004
So the "Bush documents" are clearly forgeries. Now what?
Why doesn't Dan Rather (D-TX) and CBS just admit they were hoodwinked and move on with life? Dig this from Stanley Kurtz at the National Review Online:
So, what are we to summise from this posit? That brother Dan and his cronies have been in the tank for John Kerry (D-MA) since the beginning? That would explain all the attention that dishonest hacks like Richard Clarke -- proven to be a liar by the 9/11 Commission Report -- were given on 60 Minutes before their books hit the Barnes & Noble. But this actually begs a bigger point.
What if all that noise about the Mainstream Media (MSM) being an arm of Democratic Party is true? Personally, until now I just thought they were fellow travelers who thought that anyone outside their universe were stupid. If Dan was indeed in the tank for the Dems and was actually doing their dirty work, well a sort of tipping point has been reached.
For the longest time, CBS was the heir to Edward R. Murrow's genius for journalism; a brutally non-subjective stance that allowed the consumers of news to draw their own conclusions and devoid of any partisan spin. The news business in America was not a partisan affair, like in, say, the UK, where a newspaper's political affiliation is well known. News organizations had an obligation, nay, a divine calling to "get the facts" and to get to the bottom of of a story. My first editor Lee Barnes, said, "if your mother says she loves you, check it out".
Alas, that's gone, replaced idealogues whose only interest is the advancement of their agendas. The MSM famous claim of "objectivity" will probably die in the coming years and that's not a bad thing either. This will force Americans to actually think about the source credibility of a story before they actually believe it. The art of critical thinking might actually come back into vogue.
And now that everyone with a computer can create a blog and create their own versions of the truth. So we really don't need Dan and his ilk to be our gatekeepers anymore, filtering out the noise and deciding what's news and what's not. The truth will come cascading through cables at light speed and news-consuming public will separate wheat from chaff.
Which is the way I like it.
So Dan, thanks to your vanity in so shamelessly promoting John F-ing Kerry, you did us all a favor: you showed the world your true face. You also exposed the fact that weblogs can kill a falsehood real-time even if it's shown on 60 Minutes.
Game over.
Why doesn't Dan Rather (D-TX) and CBS just admit they were hoodwinked and move on with life? Dig this from Stanley Kurtz at the National Review Online:
If CBS were to admit that the documents were forgeries, it would have no grounds for protecting its sources. In fact, CBS would have a positive obligation to do everything in its power to expose the malefactors behind the forgeries. If the trail led back to the Kerry campaign, president Bush's reelection would be assured. Dan Rather has been at pains to derogate those who are interested in where the documents came from. This sounds suspiciously like Rather is concerned about what a revelation of his sources might mean. Certainly, if Rather personally received the forgeries from a Kerry operative, it would be a disaster for Rather. That alone might seem to be sufficient to explain CBS's refusal to admit its error. (It now appears that CBS News may well have received the documents from a partisan and highly questionable source.)
So, what are we to summise from this posit? That brother Dan and his cronies have been in the tank for John Kerry (D-MA) since the beginning? That would explain all the attention that dishonest hacks like Richard Clarke -- proven to be a liar by the 9/11 Commission Report -- were given on 60 Minutes before their books hit the Barnes & Noble. But this actually begs a bigger point.
What if all that noise about the Mainstream Media (MSM) being an arm of Democratic Party is true? Personally, until now I just thought they were fellow travelers who thought that anyone outside their universe were stupid. If Dan was indeed in the tank for the Dems and was actually doing their dirty work, well a sort of tipping point has been reached.
For the longest time, CBS was the heir to Edward R. Murrow's genius for journalism; a brutally non-subjective stance that allowed the consumers of news to draw their own conclusions and devoid of any partisan spin. The news business in America was not a partisan affair, like in, say, the UK, where a newspaper's political affiliation is well known. News organizations had an obligation, nay, a divine calling to "get the facts" and to get to the bottom of of a story. My first editor Lee Barnes, said, "if your mother says she loves you, check it out".
Alas, that's gone, replaced idealogues whose only interest is the advancement of their agendas. The MSM famous claim of "objectivity" will probably die in the coming years and that's not a bad thing either. This will force Americans to actually think about the source credibility of a story before they actually believe it. The art of critical thinking might actually come back into vogue.
And now that everyone with a computer can create a blog and create their own versions of the truth. So we really don't need Dan and his ilk to be our gatekeepers anymore, filtering out the noise and deciding what's news and what's not. The truth will come cascading through cables at light speed and news-consuming public will separate wheat from chaff.
Which is the way I like it.
So Dan, thanks to your vanity in so shamelessly promoting John F-ing Kerry, you did us all a favor: you showed the world your true face. You also exposed the fact that weblogs can kill a falsehood real-time even if it's shown on 60 Minutes.
Game over.
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