In the four months or so since my last post, several things happened:

• Barack Obama was elected president;
• Oil cratered;
• Credit froze, sending the economy into:
• A recession that has just manifested itself in Q4 of 2008.

While some are singing a siren's song of doom and gloom, I beg to differ, and I differ for a few very specific reasons. These are, in no real order:

• Oil cratered -- this is like a massive tax cut for regular people like me. It was way overpriced and I said so repeatedly in this space. I hope the speculators got crushed. Commodities are not an asset class;
• The Fed poured a spectacular amount of liquidity into the economy -- that much money sloshing around is going to have to find a home. Now that the banks have closed their books for the year, I think we'll start to see lending in both the private and commercial spaces;
• People are taking their losses -- it tough to say but some people have to lose money in a market like this. Housing prices do not go up forever. The people who thought that they could buy and flip houses continuously for decades have to take a haircut. They are starting to do so now. No money down is for suckers. The era of Carlton Sheets is officially over.

While I don't like the automakers bailout, there is still plenty to like. And with the Dow sticking its proboscis above 9K for the first time since November, I'm feeling encouraged since the Dow typically predicts conditions 6 months out.

Time to jump in.