Tuesday, August 01, 2006

Iranian Troops on the Ground in Lebanon

My sources tell me that Iranian Revolutionary Guards are on the ground and fighting in Lebabnon. My sources also tell me that the estimated strength is at the brigade level.

Initial observations:

1) If this is the case, it would go a long way to explaining why pitched battles are being fought to hold territory. This is something that guerilla forces don't typically do.
2) If this is the case, it would go a long way to explaining why the Iranians are demanding a ceasefire.
3) If this is the case, it would also explain why the Bush Administration doesn't really care what the IDF does in Lebanon. Iran losing is a huge deal and will draw resources away from Iraq.
4) If this is the case, and the Israelis win, it goes a long way to showing that the Iranians are the paper tigers of the region. So far, they've never lost and they have the veneer of invincibility. Crack that veneer, and I suspect the walls will very quickly close in on them.

More as this as it develops.