While the rest of the world wrestles with the oppression that is “Working from Home”, here at my dacha in Outer Whitelandia, there has been very little change in the routine. I’ve worked from home for years and Her Imperial Majesty started in earnest back in November. She, actually, is more productive, now that she doesn’t have to commute two hours in each direction. And she’s happier: we can catch Jeopardy every night, either just before or just after supper. Das Kinder, coasting through the last bits of her senior year of high school, is doing distance learning like a champ. She never leaves the comforts of her salon and completes her work in half the time it normally takes in class. If she never sees high school again, well, that’s okay with her.
Now, those in retail and the restaurant trades have my heart, and I do carry-out every other day at least once, making sure to stop in as many places as possible in order to spread the cash around so everybody gets some. And my hats off to first responders and to grocery workers and to truck drivers, without who’s labor, most of us would starve.
We’ll get through this, sooner rather than later. At least that’s my call (bet on 20 April 2020 for things to get sort of back to normal). And when everything is said and done, America and Americans will pull through like champs.
The political ramifications are legion, the forced divestiture from China, chief among them. But alas, that will be the subject of another column for another day. What I’m really focused on today is one the favorite topics of this blog: the law of unintended consequences. It is this author’s belief that many very good things will come out of this pandemic.
Prediction: Those forced to telecommute will like it.
When 9/11 happened, I was one of the few people in the US with high speed internet via cable modem in my house. When my wife had to evacuate out of The City (and my flight to Toronto was cancelled), she brought home with her a cd with a hi-def image of Tiger Woods, slated to be used for a Buick ad. It was 600 meg. With FedEx grounded, we had to come up with a better way to get the image to the print house or miss the insertions – all the big color glossies plus Golf Digest. Thanks to a wee bit of cleverness and a background in Internet connectivity, I used WS-FTP to upload the image. Twenty-six minutes later, Buick’s campaign for the Rendezvous was saved! And Her Imperial Majesty was officially the hero.
Now, I know what you’re thinking: Dave, what does this self serving bit of self-aggrandizement have to do with telecommuting?
Ahh, grasshopper the truth is all around you. Twenty years ago the infrastucture wasn’t in place for telecommuting. If somebody wanted to work, they had to go to work in order to do it. Today, large swaths of the work force can do as Her Imperial majesty is doing right now: sitting at the dining room table with a Mac and a 22 inch monitor, moving pixels and files with the touch of a mouse.
So what’s the point? Simple. Once people start telecommuting, a significant percentage will like new normal and not go back to the old normal.
Which is not necessarily a bad thing. Indeed, the are a lot of upsides.
Possible outcomes (positive):
1. Traffic congestion lessens. Fewer people going to work means fewer people driving to work.
2. Pollution from commuters declines significantly. Less cars = less pollution.
3. Ditto greenhouse gases.
4. Productivity increases as more work is done during the time normally consumed by commuting.
5. Fewer people on the roads mean fewer traffic accidents / injuries / fatalities.
6. Uptick in revenues for local retail and hospitality businesses as people who would have commuted stay local.
7. More family time for those who want it.
Possible outcomes (negative);
1. Commercial rents decline as less office space is needed.
2. Decline in public transit riders on commuter rail. i.e. MTA, etc.
3. Decline in retail and hospitality in metro centers to where people used to commute.
While these are not the only positive outcomes that can come from this pandemic, these are some of the obvious ones. Just something to think about.
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And remember: wash your hands. Learn from Alton Brown.
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